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Frequently Asked Questions
Inside Syria’s prisons, where an estimated 17,723 have died since 2011
Excerpt from the article: The estimate is based on reports from four organizations investigating deaths in Syria from March 15, 2011, to December, 31, 2015. From those cases, the Human Rights Data Analysis Group identified 12,270 cases with sufficient information to confirm the person was killed in detention. Using a statistical method to estimate how many victims they do not yet know about, the group came up with 17,723 cases.
SermonNew death toll estimated in Syrian civil war
Kevin Uhrmacher of the Washington Post prepared a graph that illustrates reported deaths over time, by number of organizations reporting the deaths.
Mortality in the DDS Prisons in Chad, 1985–1988
Patrick Ball (2014). Human Rights Data Analysis Group. August 22, 2014. © 2014 HRDAG. Creative Commons BY-NC-SA.
12 Questions about Using Data Analysis to Bring Guatemalan War Criminals to Justice
Primer to Inform Discussions about Bail Reform
Celebrating Ten Years of Data from the AHPN
Press Release, Timor-Leste, February 2006
Beka Steorts Named MIT Under-35 Innovator
Shots fired: Can technology really keep us safe from gunfire?
Bailey Passmore + Larry Barrett. 2025. Shots fired: Can technology really keep us safe from gunfire? Significance, Volume 22, Issue 4, July 2025, Pages 34–37. 27 May 2025. © Royal Statistical Society 2025. https://doi.org/10.1093/jrssig/qmaf042
Counting The Dead: How Statistics Can Find Unreported Killings
Ball analyzed the data reporters had collected from a variety of sources – including on-the-ground interviews, police records, and human rights groups – and used a statistical technique called multiple systems estimation to roughly calculate the number of unreported deaths in three areas of the capital city Manila.
The team discovered that the number of drug-related killings was much higher than police had reported. The journalists, who published their findings last month in The Atlantic, documented 2,320 drug-linked killings over an 18-month period, approximately 1,400 more than the official number. Ball’s statistical analysis, which estimated the number of killings the reporters hadn’t heard about, found that close to 3,000 people could have been killed – more than three times the police figure.
Ball said there are both moral and technical reasons for making sure everyone who has been killed in mass violence is counted.
“The moral reason is because everyone who has been murdered should be remembered,” he said. “A terrible thing happened to them and we have an obligation as a society to justice and to dignity to remember them.”
Training with HRDAG: Rules for Organizing Data and More
Learning Day by Day: Quantitative Research at the AHPN
In Pursuit of Excellent Data Processing
Innocence Discovery Lab – Harnessing Large Language Models to Surface Data Buried in Wrongful Conviction Case Documents
Ayyub Ibrahim, Huy Dao, and Tarak Shah (2024). “Innocence Discovery Lab – Harnessing Large Language Models to Surface Data Buried in Wrongful Conviction Case Documents.” The Wrongful Conviction Law Review 5 (1):103-25. https://doi.org/10.29173/wclawr112. 31 May, 2024. Copyright (c) 2024 Ayyub Ibrahim, Huy Dao, Tarak Shah. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
How Data Extraction Illuminates Racial Disparities in Boston SWAT Raids
‘Bias deep inside the code’: the problem with AI ‘ethics’ in Silicon Valley
Kristian Lum, the lead statistician at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, and an expert on algorithmic bias, said she hoped Stanford’s stumble made the institution think more deeply about representation.
“This type of oversight makes me worried that their stated commitment to the other important values and goals – like taking seriously creating AI to serve the ‘collective needs of humanity’ – is also empty PR spin and this will be nothing more than a vanity project for those attached to it,” she wrote in an email.
Karl E. Peace Award Recognizes Work of Patrick Ball
The American Statistical Association’s 2018 Karl E. Peace Award for Outstanding Statistical Contributions for the Betterment of Society recently recognized the work of leading human rights mathematician Patrick Ball of the Human Rights Data Analysis Group (HRDAG). The award is presented annually to statisticians whose exemplary statistical research is matched by the impact their work has had on the lives of people.
Established by the family of Karl E. Peace in honor of his work for the good of society, the award—announced at the Joint Statistical Meetings—is bestowed upon distinguished individual(s) who have made substantial contributions to the statistical profession, contributions that have led in direct ways to improving the human condition. Recipients will have demonstrated through their accomplishments their commitment to service for the greater good.”
This year, Ball became the 10th recipient of the award. Read more …