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Reflections: A Love Letter to HRDAG
On the anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, HRDAG executive director Megan Price tells us why she loves her work, and why she feels hopeful about the future.
Letter from the Executive Director
Dear Friends,
This has been quite a year, and I donât just mean the recent political events in the United States, Europe and the Middle East.
Thanks to your ongoing support, HRDAG has a number of accomplishments to be proud of this year:
Patrickâs testimony in the trial of Hissene HabrĂ© for crimes against humanity was cited by the judges three times in their determination of guilt.
We launched a book describing ten years of collaborative work with the Historic Archive of the National Police in Guatemala.
We contributed quantitative analyses to Amnesty Internationalâs report on deaths in Syrian custody, and published an ...
Cuentas y mediciones de la criminalidad y de la violencia
ExploraciĂłn y anĂĄlisis de los datas para comprender la realidad. Patrick Ball y Michael Reed Hurtado. 2015. Forensis 16, no. 1 (July): 529-545. © 2015 Instituto Nacional de Medicina Legal y Ciencias Forenses (RepĂșblica de Colombia).
Humanitarian Statistics
In late 2006, a statistical study of deaths that occurred after the invasion of Iraq ignited a storm of controversy. This Lancet study estimated that more than 650,000 additional Iraqis died during the invasion than would have at pre-invasion death rates, a vastly higher estimate than any previous. But in January, a World Health Organization study placed the number at about 150,000.
First Things First: Assessing Data Quality Before Model Quality.
Anita Gohdes and Megan Price (2013). Journal of Conflict Resolution, Volume 57 Issue 6 December 2013. © 2013 Journal of Conflict Resolution. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission of SAGE. [online abstract]DOI: 10.1177/0022002712459708.
Reflections: The People Who Make the Data
HRDAG associate Miguel Cruz has an epiphany. All those data heâs drowning in? Each datapoint is a personal tragedy, a story both dark and urgent, and heâs privileged to have access.
How statistics lifts the fog of war in Syria
Megan Price, director of research, is quoted from her Strata talk, regarding how to handle multiple data sources in conflicts such as the one in Syria. From the blogpost:
âThe true number of casualties in conflicts like the Syrian war seems unknowable, but the mission of the Human Rights Data Analysis Group (HRDAG) is to make sense of such information, clouded as it is by the fog of war. They do this not by nominating one source of information as the âbestâ, but instead with statistical modeling of the differences between sources.â
How statistics lifts the fog of war in Syria
Megan Price, director of research, is quoted from her Strata talk, regarding how to handle multiple data sources in conflicts such as the one in Syria. From the blogpost:
"The true number of casualties in conflicts like the Syrian war seems unknowable, but the mission of the Human Rights Data Analysis Group (HRDAG) is to make sense of such information, clouded as it is by the fog of war. They do this not by nominating one source of information as the "best", but instead with statistical modeling of the differences between sources."
Revolution Analytics blog
David Smith
March 14, 2014
Link to story in Revolutions
Back to Press Room
Update of Iraq and Syria Data in New Paper
This week The Statistical Journal of the IAOS published a new(ish) paper by Megan Price and Patrick Ball. The open-access paper, Selection bias and the statistical patterns of mortality in conflict, is a revisiting and updating of both the Iraq and Syria examples used in an earlier paper, Big Data, Selection Bias, and the Statistical Patterns of Mortality in Conflict, which was published last year inThe SAIS Review of International Affairs (JHU Press, 2014).
HRDAG believes that the concerns highlighted by these examples are important for a wide variety of audiences, including both the foreign policy readers reached by The SAIS Review and the ...
HRDAG Testifies in HissÚne Habré Trial
Last week HRDAGâs executive director, Patrick Ball, served as an expert witness for the prosecution in the trial of HissĂšne HabrĂ©, the ruler of Chad from 1982 to 1990. The trial is taking place in Dakar, Senegal, where the 73-year-old HabrĂ© has been living since 1990 when he fled Chad. He has already been sentenced to death in absentia in Chad.
Habré is being charged with war crimes, crimes against humanity, and torture that took place during his eight-year reign. The trial is happening at the Extraordinary African Chambers, which was inaugurated by Senegal and the African Union to try Habré. This is the first time that one country has ...
HRDAGâs Year in Review: 2020
In 2020, HRDAG provided clarity on issues related to the pandemic, police misconduct, and more.
HRDAG Retreat 2018
What follows is an elaborate criss-crossing of collaborationsâretreat is a time to embrace the productivity that comes with being in the same room.
A Model to Estimate SARS-CoV-2-Positive Americans
Weâve built a model for estimating the true number of positives, using what we have determined to be the most reliable datasetsâdeaths.
Welcoming Our 2019 Human Rights Intern
Trina Reynolds-Tyler is HRDAG's 2019 Human Rights Intern.
Lessons at HRDAG: Holding Public Institutions Accountable
Principled Data Processing is a way to prove to someone, usually yourself, that what you did was right.
Talks
Upcoming Talks
TBA
Past Talks
2015
Presentation on the research behind the Evaluation of the Kosovo Memory Book Database. National Archive, Pristina, Kosovo. Patrick Ball. February 4, 2015.
How do we know what we know? Patrick Ball. Arizona State University. January, 2015.
AAAS Science & Human Rights Coalition Meeting: Big Data & Human Rights. Megan Price, panelist. Washington, D.C. January 15-16, 2015.
Examining the Crisis in Syria: Conference Hosted by New America and Arizona State Universityâs Center on the Future of War and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication. Megan Price, panelist. Washingt...
Tech Note
Using large language models for structured information extraction from the Innocence Project New Orleans' wrongful conviction case files.
Exoneration documents, secured during legal proceedings that aim to right the wrongs of justice, are invaluable for understanding wrongful convictions. They cast a spotlight on law enforcement actions, revealing systemic challenges. Yet, finding and leveraging usable information within these collections remains a formidable task for researchers and advocates, due to their volume and unstructured heterogeneity.
This post introduces the methodology of the Innocence Discovery Lab, a collaboration between Innoce...
Kosovo Data – Killings, Migrations and More
Much of the debate about the MarchâJune 1999 war between NATO and Yugoslavia turned on how many people left their homes in particular places and at certain times. Solid information about the flow of refugees out of Kosovo has helped investigators to link patterns in the flow to patterns of NATO bombing, Yugoslav strategic plans for "cleansing" Kosovo, and Yugoslav and irregular troop deployments. At its heart, the debate was about whether refugees left their homes fleeing NATO attacks and fighting between the KLA and Yugoslav forces, or whether they left their homes after being threatened, assaulted, and robbed by Yugoslav police, army, and irregu...
Data coding and inter-rater reliability (IRR)
Data coding is the process of converting unstructured information, such as a narrative testimony, into discrete facts such as names and roles of actors (victims, witnesses, perpetrators) in crimes, as well as the date and place of act. Data coding must not discard or distort information. When more than one person is identifying, classifying and counting the elements reported in a qualitative source, the results of what they find may differ slightly based on each individual's interpretation and care in doing the coding. These differences can be measured by measuring IRR (inter-rater reliability). We give the same source document to several coders and ...
The story of one document inside the AHPN
The beginnings are crucial in every stepâas critical as the beginning of sound, life, hope, and justice. Here are some first steps from the AHPN (Archivo HistĂłrico de la PolicĂa Nacional).
This is the story of Oficio Number COC/207-laov, a document that at first appears uninteresting. But this is not just any oficio*. This is one of the many documents that helped bring to trial the people responsible for the disappearance of Edgar Fernando GarcĂa. A father, husband, son, and student, GarcĂa was, like many people today, interested in changing his community for the better. (more…)