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                                                                                                            The Human Rights Data Analysis Group employs AI to analyze data from conflict zones, identifying patterns of human rights abuses that might be overlooked. This assists international organizations in holding perpetrators accountable.
                                 
                              
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                                                                                            In this video, Trina Reynolds-Tyler of Invisible Institute talks about her work with HRDAG on the missing persons project in Chicago and Beneath the Surface.
                                 
                              
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                                                                                            Nick Cumming-Bruce of the New York Times writes about the UN Office of the High Commissioner of Human Right’s release of HRDAG’s third report on reported killings in the Syrian conflict.
From the article:
In its third report on Syria commissioned by the United Nations, the Human Rights Data Analysis Group identified 191,369 deaths from the start of the conflict in March 2011 to April 2014, more than double the 92,901 deaths cited in their last report, which covered the first two years of the conflict.
“Tragically, it is probably an underestimate of the real total number of people killed during the first three years of this murderous conflict,” Ms. Pillay said in a statement that accompanied the report, which observed that many killings in Syria were undocumented.
                                 
                              
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    Tamy Guberek and Margaret Hedstrom (2017). On or off the record? Detecting patterns of silence about death in Guatemala’s National Police Archive. Archival Science. 9 February 2017. © Springer. DOI 10.1007/s10502-017-9274-3.                                    
Tamy Guberek and Margaret Hedstrom (2017). On or off the record? Detecting patterns of silence about death in Guatemala’s National Police Archive. Archival Science. 9 February 2017. © Springer. DOI 10.1007/s10502-017-9274-3.
                                                                     
                              
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    
On February 4, 2015, at the National Archive in Pristina, Kosovo, HRDAG executive director Patrick Ball gave a presentation on research (done with  colleague Jule Krüger) about the database of the Kosovo Memory Book (KMB). The KMB is part of the Humanitarian Law Centre in Belgrade and Pristina). In this photo, Patrick is speaking, and HLC-Belgrade executive director emeritus Natasa Kandic and Professor Michael Spagat are at the table with him. At the laptop between Spagat and Patrick is Laza Lazarevic of HLC; he is part of the KMB team.
About 130 people attended—a terrific response.
Presentation on the research behind the Evaluation of the ...                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    
At the 2014 Joint Statistical Meetings, Patrick Ball discussed his invited paper, "Human Rights Violations: How Do We Begin Counting the Dead?" Also at the JSM, he was honored as a new Fellow of the American Statistical Association and inducted by ASA President Nathaniel Schenker.
Joint Statistical Meetings
 August 7, 2014
Boston, Massachusetts
Link to JSM 2014 online program
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                                    This week, we join our friends and colleagues in feeling horrified by the violence in Charlottesville, Virginia. As we have for the past 26 years, we stand with the victims of violence and support human rights and dignity for all. We spend our careers observing and documenting mass political violence across the world. The demands by the so-called “alt-right” to normalize racism and social exclusion are all too familiar to us.
At HRDAG, our work is always guided by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR). We reaffirm our commitment to these principles, in particular that the “recognition of the inherent dignity and of the equal and ...                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    For more than 10 years, and with regularity, Mexican authorities have been discovering mass graves, known as fosas clandestinas, in which hundreds of bodies and piles of bones have been found. The casualties are attributed broadly to the country’s “drug war,” although the motivations and perpetrators behind the mass murders are often unknown.
Recently, HRDAG collaborated with two partners in Mexico—Data Cívica and Programa de Derechos Humanos of the Universidad Iberoamericana—to model the probability of identifying a hidden grave in each county (municipio). The model uses an set of independent variables and data about graves from 2013 ...                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    Everyone I had the pleasure of interacting with enriched my summer in some way.                                                                                                         
                              
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    Today is a very special day for all of us at HRDAG. This is, of course, the 68th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights—but this day also marks our 25th year of using statistical science to support the advancement of human rights.
It started 25 years ago, in December 1991, in San Salvador, when Patrick Ball was invited to work with the Salvadoran Lutheran Church to design a database to keep track of human rights abuses committed by the military in El Salvador. That work soon migrated to the NGO Human Rights Commission (CDHES). Fueled by thin beer and pupusas, Patrick dove into the deep world of data from human rights testimonies, ...                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    A special announcement from the HRDAG Advisory Board:
Beginning officially on December 1, HRDAG is changing leadership. After nearly three years as Executive Director, Patrick Ball will become the new Director of Research. Megan Price will be the new Executive Director.
Patrick has spent more than 25 years working at the intersection of human rights and statistical science. Over that time, he has finely honed statistical methodology for quantifying mass killings. Now he is excited about the chance to go deeper into research for HRDAG and develop additional approaches for new problems. In his new role, Patrick will focus more on technical coding ...                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    Much of the work we do at HRDAG involves estimating the number of undocumented deaths using a statistical technique called multiple systems estimation (MSE, described in more detail here). One of our goals is to make this class of methods more broadly available to human rights researchers. In particular, we are finding that Bayesian approaches are extremely valuable for MSE. Accordingly, we are pleased to offer a new R package called dga (“decomposable graphs approach”) that performs Bayesian model averaging for MSE.
The main function in this package implements a model created by David Madigan and Jeremy York. This model was designed to ...                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    How we built a model to search hundreds of  thousands of text messages from the perpetrators of a  human rights crime.                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    One year ago, HRDAG cast out on its own as an independent nonprofit—and this first year has been busy, productive, and exciting. We’re indebted to our Advisory Board for their valuable contributions and to our funders for their generosity and participation in our mission. Highlights of the past year include contributing testimony to three court cases, publishing two reports on conflict-casualties in Syria, presenting over a dozen talks (many of which are available on our talks page), traveling to over half a dozen countries to testify, collaborate with partners, and participate in conferences/workshops, hiring a new technical lead, and bringing in ...                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    We are non-partisan—we do not take sides in political or military conflicts, nor do we advocate any particular political party or government policy. However, we are not neutral: we are always in favor of human rights. We support the protections established in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, and other international human rights treaties and instruments.                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    
The first time I met anyone at HRDAG, I was a journalist. It was 2006. I was working on a story about a graduate student at Carnegie Mellon who’d collaborated with the organization on a survey in Sierra Leone, and I contacted Patrick Ball to discuss the work. At the time, I found him challenging.
But I thought his work—trying to estimate how many people were killed, or, in that study, otherwise injured, during wars—was fascinating. Over the next few years, I got to know other researchers working on similar questions. In 2008, as the war in Iraq ramped up, I spoke with epidemiologists from Johns Hopkins University, the World Health Organiz...                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    I want to invite you to check out HRDAG's new newsletter, Structural Zero. It’s written by me and my colleagues Megan Price, Bailey Passmore, Tarak Shah, and Maria Gargiulo. Each month, one of us will write about a mathematical or scientific concept we use in our work and how it can be applied to understanding the world. We’ll offer some of the real world examples we've come across, including the times when we or our partners worked to collect and process data in very dangerous situations. We’ll talk about some of the key insights we've uncovered through our work, and the cultural context for understanding what those insights mean.
You ...                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                    	 
                        
                            
                            
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    Kevin Uhrmacher of the Washington Post prepared a graph that illustrates reported deaths over time, by number of organizations reporting the deaths.
Washington Post
Kevin Uhrmacher
August 22, 2014
Link to story on Washington Post
Related blogpost (Updated Casualty Count for Syria)
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