Patrick Ball, Sheila Coronel, Mariel Padilla and David Mora (2019). Drug-related killings in the Philippines. Human Rights Data Analysis Group. 26 July 2019. © HRDAG 2019.                                    
Patrick Ball, Sheila Coronel, Mariel Padilla and David Mora (2019). Drug-related killings in the Philippines. Human Rights Data Analysis Group. 26 July 2019. © HRDAG 2019.
                                                                     
                              
                             
                             
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    The data science field is always changing, which means that I'll always be learning.                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    People filed complaints against NYPD officers, and HRDAG went above and beyond to protect the privacy of the people who reported the offenses.                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                                                        Christian Davenport and Patrick Ball. “Views to a Kill: Exploring the Implications of Source Selection in the Case of Guatemalan State Terror, 1977-1996.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(3): 427-450. 2002.
                                                                     
                              
                             
                             
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                                                                                            Amanda Taub of Vox has interviewed HRDAG executive director about the UN Office of the High Commissioner of Human Right’s release of HRDAG’s third report on reported killings in the Syrian conflict.
From the article:
Patrick Ball, Executive Director of the Human Rights Data Analysis Group and one of the report’s authors, explained to me that this new report is not a statistical estimate of the number of people killed in the conflict so far. Rather, it’s an actual list of specific victims who have been identified by name, date, and location of death. (The report only tracked violent killings, not “excess mortality” deaths from from disease or hunger that the conflict is causing indirectly.)
                                 
                              
                             
                             
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    The institution’s objectives were to learn the truth about what happened during the armed conflict.                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    The primer addresses what pretrial risk assessment is and what the research supports.                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    Structural Zero Issue 03
August 24, 2025
Part Three of Our Three-Part “Gathering the Data” Series. Read part one and part two.
In computer security, “security” is always relative to something. What are we actually defending against, and how are we doing it? This is our “threat model.”
My colleagues and I have been using scientific tools to analyze evidence of human rights abuses, including using statistics to uncover mass graves in Mexico and analyzing under-reported police homicides in the United States.
Our work isn’t always popular. It can infuriate those in power who want to cover up incriminating truths about the ...                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    
Last Thursday, HRDAG co-founder and director of research Megan Price presented at Strata, the conference for data scientists and people who work with "big data." In her talk, she addressed the question of how we can know the actual number of conflict casualties in Syrian. Her short answer was, "We don't know." The longer answer was that we have a very good idea of how many conflict casualties have been reported, by several documentation groups, and that we're working on analyzing  (more…)                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    
At some point in the next week, HRDAG's executive director, Patrick Ball, will be providing expert testimony in the trial of General José Efraín Ríos Montt, the de-facto president of Guatemala in 1982-1983. Gen. Ríos is being tried on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity. (His military intelligence director, Gen. Mauricio Rodríguez Sánchez is also on trial.) Patrick will testify on approximately April 15-18, 2013, and he may begin as early as this Friday, April 12.
The trial opened on March 20, 2013, in the Supreme Court building in Guatemala City. According to an Open Society Justice Initiative blogpost covering the event, the ...                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    
Ten data nerds gathered in a large hilltop beach house to analyze counts of killings from several war-torn countries. The time was January 16-20, 2014, the place was near San Francisco, the agenda was packed, and I was excited to be there.
Having defended my dissertation at Carnegie Mellon University just days before, I had often supposed that my thesis on a generalization of
log-linear models for capture-recapture might serve little other purpose than to fill a line on my curriculum vitae. This perception faded after a mid-2013 discussion with Patrick convinced me that HRDAG's data challenges could easily be the best match to my research ...                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                     
Dear friends,
Our spirits were really on the ground on Wednesday, but they lifted at the board meeting we had at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group on Thursday. Executive Director Megan Price, Director of Research Patrick Ball, and the Board drafted these thoughts which we'd like to share with you.
For more than twenty-five years, we have held heads of state accountable for human rights violations. We support our partners and advocates in the human rights field. They collect data which we analyze using technical and scientific expertise. Those scientific results bring clarity to human rights violence and support the fight for justice.
...                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                    Inaccurate statistics can damage the credibility of human rights claims—and that's why we strive to ensure that statistics about human rights violations are generated with as much rigor and are as scientifically accurate as possible.
But, what are the pitfalls leading to inaccuracy—when, where, and how do data become compromised? How are patterns biased by having only partial data? And what are the best scientific methods for collecting, managing, processing and analyzing data?
Here are the data pitfalls that HRDAG has identified, as well as some of our approaches for meeting these challenges. We believe that human rights researchers must take ...                                                                                                        
                              
                             
                             
                                
                                
                                
                                 
                                
                                
                                                                                                            In this NPR story, HRDAG’s Patrick Ball comments on first-of-its-kind projections.