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Inside the Difficult, Dangerous Work of Tallying the ISIS Death Toll
HRDAG executive director Megan Price is interviewed by Mother Jones. An excerpt: “Violence can be hidden,” says Price. “ISIS has its own agenda. Sometimes that agenda is served by making public things they’ve done, and I have to assume, sometimes it’s served by hiding things they’ve done.”
âEl reto de la estadĂstica es encontrar lo escondidoâ: experto en manejo de datos sobre el conflicto
In this interview with Colombian newspaper El Espectador, Patrick Ball is quoted as saying “la gente que no conoce de ĂĄlgebra nunca deberĂa hacer estadĂsticas” (people who don’t know algebra should never do statistics).
“SurmortalitĂ© carcĂ©rale” sous HabrĂ©
Le statisticien amĂ©ricain Patrick Ball, expert au procĂšs de HissĂšne HabrĂ©, a dĂ©clarĂ© vendredi que le taux de mortalitĂ© d’opposants tchadiens prĂ©sumĂ©s dans les prisons du rĂ©gime HabrĂ© Ă©tait encore pire que celui des prisonniers de guerre amĂ©ricains dans les camps japonais.
ProcĂšs HissĂšne HabrĂ© : Le statisticien fait Ă©tat dâun taux de mortalitĂ© de 2,37% par jour
Les auditions dâexperts se poursuivent au palais de justice de Dakar sur le procĂšs de lâex-prĂ©sident tchadien HissĂšne HabrĂ©. Hier, câĂ©tait au tour de Patrick Ball, seul inscrit au rĂŽle, commis par la chambre dâaccusation de NâDjamena pour dresser les statistiques sur le taux de mortalitĂ© dans les centres de dĂ©tention.
Direct procÚs Habré: le taux de mortalité dans les centres de détention, au menu des débats
Statisticien, Patrick Ball est Ă la barre ce vendredi matin. Lâexpert est entendu sur le taux de mortalitĂ© dans les centres de dĂ©tention au Tchad sous HabrĂ©. DĂ©signĂ© par la chambre d’accusation, il dira avoir axĂ© ses travaux sur des tĂ©moignages, des donnĂ©es venant des victimes et des documents de la DDS (Direction de la Documentation et de la SĂ©curitĂ©).
Syriaâs status, the migrant crisis and talking to ISIS
In this week’s “Top Picks,” IRIN interviews HRDAG executive director Patrick Ball about giant data sets and whether we can trust them. “No matter how big it is, data on violence is always partial,â he says.
Are journalists lowballing the number of Iraqi war dead?
The Columbia Journalism Review investigates the casualty count in Iraq, more than a decade after the U.S. invasion. HRDAG executive director Patrick Ball is quoted. âIBC is very good at covering the bombs that go off in markets,â said Patrick Ball, an analyst at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group who says his whole career is to study âpeople being killed.â But quiet assassinations and military skirmishes away from the capital often receive little or no media attention.
Kriege und Social Media: Die Daten sind nicht perfekt
Suddeutsche Zeitung writer Mirjam Hauck interviewed HRDAG affiliate Anita Gohdes about the pitfalls of relying on social media data when interpreting violence in the context of war. This article, âKriege und Social Media: Die Daten sind nicht perfekt,â is in German.
Experts Greet Kosovo Memory Book
On Wednesday, February 4, in Pristina, international experts praised the Humanitarian Law Centreâs database on victims of the Kosovo conflict, the Kosovo Memory Book. HRDAG executive director Patrick Ball is quoted in the article that appeared in Balkan Transitional Justice.
Data and Social Good: Using Data Science to Improve Lives, Fight Injustice, and Support Democracy
In this free, downloadable report, Mike Barlow of O’Reilly Media cites several examples of how data and the work of data scientists have made a measurable impact on organizations such as DataKind, a group that connects socially minded data scientists with organizations working to address critical humanitarian issues. HRDAGâand executive director Megan Priceâis one of the first organizations whose work is mentioned.
Download: Megan Price
Executive director Megan Price is interviewed in The New York Times’ Sunday Review, as part of a series known as “Download,” which features a biosketch of “Influencers and their interests.”
The Case Against a Golden Key
Patrick Ball (2016). The case against a golden key. Foreign Affairs. September 14, 2016. ©2016 Council on Foreign Relations, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Can âpredictive policingâ prevent crime before it happens?
HRDAG analyst William Isaac is quoted in this article about so-called crime prediction. “They’re not predicting the future. What they’re actually predicting is where the next recorded police observations are going to occur.”
Data-driven crime prediction fails to erase human bias
Work by HRDAG researchers Kristian Lum and William Isaac is cited in this article about the Policing Project: “While this bias knows no color or socioeconomic class, Lum and her HRDAG colleague William Isaac demonstrate that it can lead to policing that unfairly targets minorities and those living in poorer neighborhoods.”
Reflections: The G in HRDAG is the Real Fuel
Rise of the racist robots â how AI is learning all our worst impulses
âIf youâre not careful, you risk automating the exact same biases these programs are supposed to eliminate,â says Kristian Lum, the lead statistician at the San Francisco-based, non-profit Human Rights Data Analysis Group (HRDAG). Last year, Lum and a co-author showed that PredPol, a program for police departments that predicts hotspots where future crime might occur, could potentially get stuck in a feedback loop of over-policing majority black and brown neighbourhoods. The program was âlearningâ from previous crime reports. For Samuel Sinyangwe, a justice activist and policy researcher, this kind of approach is âespecially nefariousâ because police can say: âWeâre not being biased, weâre just doing what the math tells us.â And the public perception might be that the algorithms are impartial.
Mapping Mexicoâs hidden graves
When Patrick Ball was introduced to Iberoâs database, the director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group in San Francisco, California, saw an opportunity to turn the data into a predictive model. Ball, who has used similar models to document human rights violations from Syria to Guatemala, soon invited Data CĂvica, a Mexico Cityâbased nonprofit that creates tools for analyzing data, to join the project.
The ghost in the machine
“Every kind of classification system – human or machine – has several kinds of errors it might make,” [Patrick Ball] says. “To frame that in a machine learning context, what kind of error do we want the machine to make?” HRDAG’s work on predictive policing shows that “predictive policing” finds patterns in police records, not patterns in occurrence of crime.
5 Questions for Kristian Lum
Kristian Lum discusses the challenges of getting accurate data from conflict zones, as well as her concerns about predictive policing if law enforcement gets it wrong.