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Beka Steorts Named MIT Under-35 Innovator

We’ve known for years that Beka Steorts is on the cutting-edge of statistical science, and now The MIT Technology Review has realized the same. Last week she was named one of 35 Innovators Under 35, in the category of humanitarian. We first became familiar with Beka's work in 2013 when she was a visiting professor at Carnegie Mellon and was introduced to us by Prof. Steve Fienberg. Since then, we’ve felt very fortunate to collaborate with her on projects such as the UN enumeration of casualties in the Syrian conflict, and we look forward to many more years of work with her. She is one of several young stars we include in our superheroine hall ...

Experts Greet Kosovo Memory Book

On Wednesday, February 4, in Pristina, international experts praised the Humanitarian Law Centre's database on victims of the Kosovo conflict, the Kosovo Memory Book. HRDAG executive director Patrick Ball is quoted in the article that appeared in Balkan Transitional Justice. HLC’s work won praise from Patrick Ball, from Human Rights Data Analysis Group and from Michael Spagat, professor of economics at Royal Holloway, University of London, who have examined and analysed the database. Ball, with 24 years of experience in databases and statistics of human rights, said that the HLC’s database had enormous quality and marked it out as among the ...

New death toll estimated in Syrian civil war

Kevin Uhrmacher of the Washington Post prepared a graph that illustrates reported deaths over time, by number of organizations reporting the deaths. Washington Post Kevin Uhrmacher August 22, 2014 Link to story on Washington Post Related blogpost (Updated Casualty Count for Syria) Back to Press Room  

Why It Took So Long To Update the U.N.-Sponsored Syria Death Count

In this story, Carl Bialik of FiveThirtyEight interviews HRDAG executive director Patrick Ball about the process of de-duplication, integration of databases, and machine-learning in the recent enumeration of reported casualties in Syria. New reports of old deaths come in all the time, Ball said, making it tough to maintain a database. The duplicate-removal process means “it’s a lot like redoing the whole project each time,” he said. FiveThirtyEight Carl Bialik August 23, 2014 Link to story on FiveThirtyEight Related blogpost (Updated Casualty Count for Syria) Back to Press Room  

In Syria, Uncovering the Truth Behind a Number

Huffington Post Politics writer Matt Easton interviews Patrick Ball, executive director of HRDAG, about the latest enumeration of killings in Syria. As selection bias is increasing, it becomes harder to see it: we have the "appearance of perfect knowledge, when in fact the shape of that knowledge has not changed that much," says Patrick. "Technology is not a substitute for science." Huffington Post Politics Matt Easton September 6, 2014 Link to story on HuffPostPol Related blogpost (Updated Casualty Count for Syria) Back to Press Room

R programming language demands the right use case

Megan Price, director of research, is quoted in this story about the R programming language. "Serious data analysis is not something you're going to do using a mouse and drop-down boxes," said HRDAG's director of research Megan Price. "It's the kind of thing you're going to do getting close to the data, getting close to the code and writing some of it yourself." TechTarget blog Ed Burns March 19, 2014 Link to story in TechTarget Back to Press Room

Death March

A mapped representation of the scale and spread of killings in Syria. HRDAG's director of research, Megan Price, is quoted. FOREIGN POLICY | MAP ROOM Jacopo Ottaviani January 15, 2014 Link to story in Foreign Policy Back to Press Room

How statistics lifts the fog of war in Syria

Megan Price, director of research, is quoted from her Strata talk, regarding how to handle multiple data sources in conflicts such as the one in Syria. From the blogpost: "The true number of casualties in conflicts like the Syrian war seems unknowable, but the mission of the Human Rights Data Analysis Group (HRDAG) is to make sense of such information, clouded as it is by the fog of war. They do this not by nominating one source of information as the "best", but instead with statistical modeling of the differences between sources." Revolution Analytics blog David Smith March 14, 2014 Link to story in Revolutions Back to Press Room

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A Statistical Analysis of the Guatemalan National Police Archive: Searching for Documentation of Human Rights Abuses.

Megan E. Price, Tamy Guberek, Daniel R. Guzmán, Paul Zador, Gary M. Shapiro (2009). “A Statistical Analysis of the Guatemalan National Police Archive: Searchingfor Documentation of Human Rights Abuses.”In JSM Proceedings, Survey Research Methods Section. Alexandria, VA: American Statistical Association.


Preliminary Statistical Analysis of AVCRP & DDS Documents – A report to Human Rights Watch about Chad under the government of Hissène Habré


The ‘Dirty War Index’ and the Real World of Armed Conflict.

Amelia Hoover, Romesh Silva, Tamy Guberek, and Daniel Guzmán. “The ‘Dirty War Index’ and the Real World of Armed Conflict.” May 23, 2009. © 2009 HRDAG. Creative Commons BY-NC-SA.


Missing People in Casanare

Daniel Guzmán, Tamy Guberek, Amelia Hoover, and Patrick Ball (2007). “Missing People in Casanare.” Benetech. Also available in Spanish – “Los Desaparecidos de Casanare.”


The Demography of Conflict-Related Mortality in Timor-Leste (1974-1999): Empirical Quantitative Measurement of Civilian Killings, Disappearances & Famine-Related Deaths

Romesh Silva and Patrick Ball. “The Demography of Conflict-Related Mortality in Timor-Leste (1974-1999): Empirical Quantitative Measurement of Civilian Killings, Disappearances & Famine-Related Deaths” In Statistical Methods for Human Rights, J. Asher, D. Banks and F. Scheuren, eds., Springer (New York) (2007)


The Demography of Large-Scale Human Rights Atrocities: Integrating demographic and statistical analysis into post-conflicthistorical clarification in Timor-Leste.

Romesh Silva and Patrick Ball. “The Demography of Large-Scale Human Rights Atrocities: Integrating demographic and statistical analysis into post-conflicthistorical clarification in Timor-Leste.” Paper presented at the 2006 meetings of the Population Association of America.


On the Quantification of Horror: Field Notes on Statistical Analysis of Human Rights Violations.

Patrick Ball. “On the Quantification of Horror: Field Notes on Statistical Analysis of Human Rights Violations.” in Repression and Mobilization, ed. by Christian Davenport, Hank Johnston, and Carol Mueller. Minneapolis: U Minnesota P. 2005.


On the Use of Sample Surveys and Multiple Systems Estimations in Assessing Large-Scale Human Rights Violations: Recent Experiences from Timor-Leste.

Romesh Silva and Patrick Ball. “On the Use of Sample Surveys and Multiple Systems Estimations in Assessing Large-Scale Human Rights Violations: Recent Experiences from Timor-Leste.” Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section – Joint Statistical Meetings. New York, (USA). August, 2005.


Quantitative Data Analysis and Large-Scale Human Rights Violations: An Example of Applied Statistics at the Grassroots.

Romesh Silva. “Quantitative Data Analysis and Large-Scale Human Rights Violations: An Example of Applied Statistics at the Grassroots.” Gazette of the Australian Mathematical Society. Canberra (Australia). Volume 32, Number 2, May 2005.


Sierra Leone Statistical Appendix

Richard Conibere, Jana Asher, Kristen Cibella, Jana Dudukovic, Rafe Kaplan, and Patrick Ball. Sierra Leone Statistical Appendix, A Report by the Benetech Human Rights Data Analysis Group and the American Bar Association Central European and Eurasian Law Initiative to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. October 5, 2004.


Foundation of Human Rights Statistics in Sierra Leone

Richard Conibere (2004). Foundation of Human Rights Statistics in Sierra Leone (abstr.), Joint Statistical Meetings. Toronto, Canada.


Our work has been used by truth commissions, international criminal tribunals, and non-governmental human rights organizations. We have worked with partners on projects on five continents.

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