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Can ‘predictive policing’ prevent crime before it happens?
HRDAG analyst William Isaac is quoted in this article about so-called crime prediction. “They’re not predicting the future. What they’re actually predicting is where the next recorded police observations are going to occur.”
Searching for Trends: Analyzing Patterns in Conflict Violence Data
Megan Price and Anita Gohdes (2014). Searching for Trends: Analyzing Patterns in Conflict Violence Data. Political Violence @ a Glance. © 2014 PV@G.
Third CLS Story
Scanning Documents to Uncover Police Violence
Fourth CLS Story
Quantifying Police Misconduct in Louisiana
The Bigness of Big Data: samples, models, and the facts we might find when looking at data
Patrick Ball. 2015. The Bigness of Big Data: samples, models, and the facts we might find when looking at data. In The Transformation of Human Rights Fact-Finding, ed. Philip Alston and Sarah Knuckey. New York: Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780190239497. © The Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.
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Welcoming our new Technical Lead
Using Data and Statistics to Bring Down Dictators
In this story, Guerrini discusses the impact of HRDAG’s work in Guatemala, especially the trials of General José Efraín Ríos Montt and Colonel Héctor Bol de la Cruz, as well as work in El Salvador, Syria, Kosovo, and Timor-Leste. Multiple systems estimation and the perils of using raw data to draw conclusions are also addressed.
Megan Price and Patrick Ball are quoted, especially in regard to how to use raw data.
“From our perspective,” Price says, “the solution to that is both to stay very close to the data, to be very conservative in your interpretation of it and to be very clear about where the data came from, how it was collected, what its limitations might be, and to a certain extent to be skeptical about it, to ask yourself questions like, ‘What is missing from this data?’ and ‘How might that missing information change these conclusions that I’m trying to draw?’”
Corrigendum: Killings and Refugee Flow in Kosovo, March–June, 1999 (A report to ICTY)
Responses to questions from ICTY office Corrigendum: Killings and Refugee Flow in Kosovo, March–June, 1999 (A report to ICTY) . © 2002 AAAS and ABA CEELI.
Data-driven development needs both social and computer scientists
Excerpt:
Data scientists are programmers who ignore probability but like pretty graphs, said Patrick Ball, a statistician and human rights advocate who cofounded the Human Rights Data Analysis Group.
“Data is broken,” Ball said. “Anyone who thinks they’re going to use big data to solve a problem is already on the path to fantasy land.”
The Bosnian Book of the Dead: Assessment of the Database (Full Report).
Patrick Ball, Ewa Tabeau, and Philip Verwimp (2007). “The Bosnian Book of the Dead: Assessment of the Database (Full Report).” Households in Conflict Network Research Design Note 5.
The World According to Artificial Intelligence (Part 1)
The World According to Artificial Intelligence: Targeted by Algorithm (Part 1)
The Big Picture: The World According to AI explores how artificial intelligence is being used today, and what it means to those on its receiving end.
Patrick Ball is interviewed: “Machine learning is pretty good at finding elements out of a huge pool of non-elements… But we’ll get a lot of false positives along the way.”
Humanitarian Statistics
In late 2006, a statistical study of deaths that occurred after the invasion of Iraq ignited a storm of controversy. This Lancet study estimated that more than 650,000 additional Iraqis died during the invasion than would have at pre-invasion death rates, a vastly higher estimate than any previous. But in January, a World Health Organization study placed the number at about 150,000.