Ball analyzed the data reporters had collected from a variety of sources – including on-the-ground interviews, police records, and human rights groups – and used a statistical technique called multiple systems estimation to roughly calculate the number of unreported deaths in three areas of the capital city Manila.
The team discovered that the number of drug-related killings was much higher than police had reported. The journalists, who published their findings last month in The Atlantic, documented 2,320 drug-linked killings over an 18-month period, approximately 1,400 more than the official number. Ball’s statistical analysis, which estimated the number of killings the reporters hadn’t heard about, found that close to 3,000 people could have been killed – more than three times the police figure.
Ball said there are both moral and technical reasons for making sure everyone who has been killed in mass violence is counted.
“The moral reason is because everyone who has been murdered should be remembered,” he said. “A terrible thing happened to them and we have an obligation as a society to justice and to dignity to remember them.”
Larry Barrett has joined HRDAG as a Human Rights and Data Science Intern until February, 2022.
HRDAG's advisory board has added three new members.
Principled Data Processing is a way to prove to someone, usually yourself, that what you did was right.
Causal inference methods show that for indigent clients, money bail increases their likelihood of a guilty conviction.
Our team was able to identify over 50 complaints related to missing persons cases.
Structural Zero Issue 03
August 24, 2025
Part Three of Our Three-Part “Gathering the Data” Series. Read part one and part two.
In computer security, “security” is always relative to something. What are we actually defending against, and how are we doing it? This is our “threat model.”
My colleagues and I have been using scientific tools to analyze evidence of human rights abuses, including using statistics to uncover mass graves in Mexico and analyzing under-reported police homicides in the United States.
Our work isn’t always popular. It can infuriate those in power who want to cover up incriminating truths about the ...
HRDAG is pleased to accept donations to our nonprofit via Donor Advised Funds. We’ve published step-by-step directions to make donating through a DAF simple and fast. Check out the directions now or contact us at info@hrdag.org if you have any questions.
October 9 is Donor Advised Fund Day—a recently established awareness day that encourages DAF holders to activate their funds by recommending charities to receive support. You can participate by donating to HRDAG via a Donor Advised Fund or read on to learn more.
What is a Donor Advised Fund?
A Donor-Advised Fund (DAF) is an easy, flexible way to support charities while taking advantage of ...
IN THE FACE OF TYRANNY
Taking a Stand as Data Scientists
As human rights data analysts, we center our moral understanding on the values of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. We believe that "recognition of the inherent dignity and of the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family is the foundation of freedom, justice and peace in the world," as the Declaration's preamble states. This is our guide, and these are our values. For thirty-five years, this has meant using our skills as statisticians and programmers to help other people in their campaigns for truth and justice.
When a doctor sees a sick or injured person, they ...
IN THE FACE OF TYRANNY
Taking a Stand as Data Scientists
As human rights data analysts, we center our moral understanding on the values of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. We believe that “recognition of the inherent dignity and of the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family is the foundation of freedom, justice and peace in the world,” as the Declaration’s preamble states. This is our guide, and these are our values. For thirty-five years, this has meant using our skills as statisticians and programmers to help other people in their campaigns for truth and justice.
When a doctor sees a sick or injured ...
