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Data-driven crime prediction fails to erase human bias
Work by HRDAG researchers Kristian Lum and William Isaac is cited in this article about the Policing Project: “While this bias knows no color or socioeconomic class, Lum and her HRDAG colleague William Isaac demonstrate that it can lead to policing that unfairly targets minorities and those living in poorer neighborhoods.”
What happens when you look at crime by the numbers
Kristian Lum’s work on the HRDAG Policing Project is referred to here: “In fact, Lum argues, itâs not clear how well this model worked at depicting the situation in Oakland. Those data on drug crimes were biased, she now reports. The problem was not deliberate, she says. Rather, data collectors just missed some criminals and crime sites. So data on them never made it into her model.”
Big data may be reinforcing racial bias in the criminal justice system
Laurel Eckhouse (2017). Big data may be reinforcing racial bias in the criminal justice system. Washington Post. 10 February 2017. © 2017 Washington Post.
Can âpredictive policingâ prevent crime before it happens?
HRDAG analyst William Isaac is quoted in this article about so-called crime prediction. “They’re not predicting the future. What they’re actually predicting is where the next recorded police observations are going to occur.”
Amnesty International Reports Organized Murder Of Detainees In Syrian Prison
Reports of torture and disappearances in Syria are not new. But the Amnesty International report says the magnitude and severity of abuse has “increased drastically” since 2011. Citing the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, the report says “at least 17,723 people were killed in government custody between March 2011 and December 2015, an average of 300 deaths each month.”
DATNAV: New Guide to Navigate and Integrate Digital Data in Human Rights Research
DatNav is the result of a collaboration between Amnesty International, Benetech, and The Engine Room, which began in late 2015 culminating in an intense four-day writing sprint facilitated by Chris Michael and Collaborations for Change in May 2016. HRDAG consultant Jule KrĂŒger is a contributor, and HRDAG director of research Patrick Ball is a reviewer.
At Torontoâs Tamil Fest, human rights group seeks data on Sri Lankaâs civil war casualties
Earlier this year, the Canadian Tamil Congress connected with HRDAG to bring its campaign to Torontoâs annual Tamil Fest, one of the largest gatherings of Canadaâs Sri Lankan diaspora.
Ravichandradeva, along with a few other volunteers, spent the weekend speaking with festival-goers in Scarborough about the project and encouraging them to come forward with information about deceased or missing loved ones and friends.
âThe idea is to collect thorough, scientifically rigorous numbers on the total casualties in the war and present them as a non-partisan, independent organization,â said Michelle Dukich, a data consultant with HRDAG.
How many people are infected with Covid-19?
Tarak Shah (2020). How many people are infected with Covid-19? Significance. 09 April 2020. © 2020 The Royal Statistical Society.
ProcĂšs HissĂšne HabrĂ© : Le statisticien fait Ă©tat dâun taux de mortalitĂ© de 2,37% par jour
Les auditions dâexperts se poursuivent au palais de justice de Dakar sur le procĂšs de lâex-prĂ©sident tchadien HissĂšne HabrĂ©. Hier, câĂ©tait au tour de Patrick Ball, seul inscrit au rĂŽle, commis par la chambre dâaccusation de NâDjamena pour dresser les statistiques sur le taux de mortalitĂ© dans les centres de dĂ©tention.
The Forensic Humanitarian
International human rights work attracts activists and lawyers, diplomats and retired politicians. One of the most admired figures in the field, however, is a ponytailed statistics guru from Silicon Valley named Patrick Ball, who has spent nearly two decades fashioning a career for himself at the intersection of mathematics and murder. You could call him a forensic humanitarian.
Data Mining on the Side of the Angels
âData, by itself, isnât truth.â How HRDAG uses data analysis and statistical methods to shed light on mass human rights abuses. Executive director Patrick Ball is quoted from his speech at the Chaos Communication Congress in Hamburg, Germany.
Syrian civil war death toll exceeds 190,000, U.N. reports
Ayan Sheikh of PBS News Hour reports on the UN Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rightâs release of HRDAGâs third report on reported killings in the Syrian conflict.
From the article:
The latest death toll figure covers the period from March 2011 to April of this year, came from the Human Rights Data Analysis Group and is the third study of its kind on Syria. The analysis group identified 191,269 deaths. Data was collected from five different sources to exclude inaccuracies and repetitions.
New UN report counts 191,369 Syrian-war deaths â but the truth is probably much, much worse
Amanda Taub of Vox has interviewed HRDAG executive director about the UN Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rightâs release of HRDAGâs third report on reported killings in the Syrian conflict.
From the article:
Patrick Ball, Executive Director of the Human Rights Data Analysis Group and one of the reportâs authors, explained to me that this new report is not a statistical estimate of the number of people killed in the conflict so far. Rather, itâs an actual list of specific victims who have been identified by name, date, and location of death. (The report only tracked violent killings, not âexcess mortalityâ deaths from from disease or hunger that the conflict is causing indirectly.)
UN Raises Estimate of Dead in Syrian Conflict to 191,000
Nick Cumming-Bruce of the New York Times writes about the UN Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rightâs release of HRDAGâs third report on reported killings in the Syrian conflict.
From the article:
In its third report on Syria commissioned by the United Nations, the Human Rights Data Analysis Group identified 191,369 deaths from the start of the conflict in March 2011 to April 2014, more than double the 92,901 deaths cited in their last report, which covered the first two years of the conflict.
âTragically, it is probably an underestimate of the real total number of people killed during the first three years of this murderous conflict,â Ms. Pillay said in a statement that accompanied the report, which observed that many killings in Syria were undocumented.
SermonNew death toll estimated in Syrian civil war
Kevin Uhrmacher of the Washington Post prepared a graph that illustrates reported deaths over time, by number of organizations reporting the deaths.
In Syria, Uncovering the Truth Behind a Number
Huffington Post Politics writer Matt Easton interviews Patrick Ball, executive director of HRDAG, about the latest enumeration of killings in Syria. As selection bias is increasing, it becomes harder to see it: we have the âappearance of perfect knowledge, when in fact the shape of that knowledge has not changed that much,â says Patrick. âTechnology is not a substitute for science.â
âEl reto de la estadĂstica es encontrar lo escondidoâ: experto en manejo de datos sobre el conflicto
In this interview with Colombian newspaper El Espectador, Patrick Ball is quoted as saying “la gente que no conoce de ĂĄlgebra nunca deberĂa hacer estadĂsticas” (people who don’t know algebra should never do statistics).