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The Bosnian Book of the Dead: Assessment of the Database (Full Report).
Patrick Ball, Ewa Tabeau, and Philip Verwimp (2007). âThe Bosnian Book of the Dead: Assessment of the Database (Full Report).â Households in Conflict Network Research Design Note 5.
Weighting for the Guatemalan National Police Archive Sample: Unusual Challenges and Problems.â
Gary M. Shapiro, Daniel R. GuzmĂĄn, Paul Zador, Tamy Guberek, Megan E. Price, Kristian Lum (2009).âWeighting for the Guatemalan National Police Archive Sample: Unusual Challenges and Problems.âIn JSM Proceedings, Survey Research Methods Section. Alexandria, VA: American Statistical Association.
Welcoming Our New Statistician
How Data Analysis Confirmed the Bias in a Family Screening Tool
What we’ll need to find the true COVID-19 death toll
From the article: “Intentionally inconsistent tracking can also influence the final tally, notes Megan Price, a statistician at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group. During the Iraq War, for example, officials worked to conceal mortality or to cherry pick existing data to steer the political narrative. While wars are handled differently from pandemics, Price thinks the COVID-19 data could still be at risk of this kind of manipulation.”
A Human Rights Statistician Finds Truth In Numbers
The tension started in the witness room. “You could feel the stress rolling off the walls in there,” Patrick Ball remembers. “I can remember realizing that this is why lawyers wear sport coats â you can’t see all the sweat on their arms and back.” He was, you could say, a little nervous to be cross-examined by Slobodan Milosevic.
Quantifying Injustice
“In 2016, two researchers, the statistician Kristian Lum and the political scientist William Isaac, set out to measure the bias in predictive policing algorithms. They chose as their example a program called PredPol. … Lum and Isaac faced a conundrum: if official data on crimes is biased, how can you test a crime prediction model? To solve this technique, they turned to a technique used in statistics and machine learning called the synthetic population.”
Unbiased algorithms can still be problematic
âUsually, the thing youâre trying to predict in a lot of these cases is something like rearrest,â Lum said. âSo even if we are perfectly able to predict that, weâre still left with the problem that the human or systemic or institutional biases are generating biased arrests. And so, you still have to contextualize even your 100 percent accuracy with is the data really measuring what you think itâs measuring? Is the data itself generated by a fair process?â
HRDAG Director of Research Patrick Ball, in agreement with Lum, argued that itâs perhaps more practical to move it away from bias at the individual level and instead call it bias at the institutional or structural level. If a police department, for example, is convinced it needs to police one neighborhood more than another, itâs not as relevant if that officer is a racist individual, he said.
HRDAG Retreat 2016
Inside Syria’s prisons, where an estimated 17,723 have died since 2011
Excerpt from the article:Â The estimate is based on reports from four organizations investigating deaths in Syria from March 15, 2011, to December, 31, 2015. From those cases, the Human Rights Data Analysis Group identified 12,270 cases with sufficient information to confirm the person was killed in detention. Using a statistical method to estimate how many victims they do not yet know about, the group came up with 17,723 cases.
Kriege und Social Media: Die Daten sind nicht perfekt
Suddeutsche Zeitung writer Mirjam Hauck interviewed HRDAG affiliate Anita Gohdes about the pitfalls of relying on social media data when interpreting violence in the context of war. This article, âKriege und Social Media: Die Daten sind nicht perfekt,â is in German.
At Torontoâs Tamil Fest, human rights group seeks data on Sri Lankaâs civil war casualties
Earlier this year, the Canadian Tamil Congress connected with HRDAG to bring its campaign to Torontoâs annual Tamil Fest, one of the largest gatherings of Canadaâs Sri Lankan diaspora.
Ravichandradeva, along with a few other volunteers, spent the weekend speaking with festival-goers in Scarborough about the project and encouraging them to come forward with information about deceased or missing loved ones and friends.
âThe idea is to collect thorough, scientifically rigorous numbers on the total casualties in the war and present them as a non-partisan, independent organization,â said Michelle Dukich, a data consultant with HRDAG.
War and Illness Could Kill 85,000 Gazans in 6 Months
HRDAG director of research Patrick Ball is quoted in this New York Times article about a paper that models death tolls in Gaza.
Mapping Mexicoâs hidden graves
When Patrick Ball was introduced to Iberoâs database, the director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group in San Francisco, California, saw an opportunity to turn the data into a predictive model. Ball, who has used similar models to document human rights violations from Syria to Guatemala, soon invited Data CĂvica, a Mexico Cityâbased nonprofit that creates tools for analyzing data, to join the project.
PRIO Director Henrik Urdal’s 2022 Nobel Peace Prize Shortlist
Henrik Urdal has released his final Nobel Shortlist for 2022, and HRDAG is included on it, alongside Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Alexei Navalny, and others. The list highlights pro-democracy efforts, multilateral cooperation, combating religious extremism and intolerance, and the value that research and knowledge can have for promoting peace.
What happens when you look at crime by the numbers
Kristian Lum’s work on the HRDAG Policing Project is referred to here: “In fact, Lum argues, itâs not clear how well this model worked at depicting the situation in Oakland. Those data on drug crimes were biased, she now reports. The problem was not deliberate, she says. Rather, data collectors just missed some criminals and crime sites. So data on them never made it into her model.”
In Syria, Uncovering the Truth Behind a Number
Huffington Post Politics writer Matt Easton interviews Patrick Ball, executive director of HRDAG, about the latest enumeration of killings in Syria. As selection bias is increasing, it becomes harder to see it: we have the âappearance of perfect knowledge, when in fact the shape of that knowledge has not changed that much,â says Patrick. âTechnology is not a substitute for science.â
The Data Scientist Helping to Create Ethical Robots
Kristian Lum is focusing on artificial intelligence and the controversial use of predictive policing and sentencing programs.
Whatâs the relationship between statistics and AI and machine learning?
AI seems to be a sort of catchall for predictive modeling and computer modeling. There was this great tweet that said something like, âItâs AI when youâre trying to raise money, ML when youâre trying to hire developers, and statistics when youâre actually doing it.â I thought that was pretty accurate.
Can âpredictive policingâ prevent crime before it happens?
HRDAG analyst William Isaac is quoted in this article about so-called crime prediction. “They’re not predicting the future. What they’re actually predicting is where the next recorded police observations are going to occur.”