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How do epidemiologists know how many people will get Covid-19?
Patrick Ball (2020). How do epidemiologists know how many people will get Covid-19? Significance. 09 April 2020. © 2020 The Royal Statistical Society.
How many people are infected with Covid-19?
Tarak Shah (2020). How many people are infected with Covid-19? Significance. 09 April 2020. © 2020 The Royal Statistical Society.
Counting The Dead: How Statistics Can Find Unreported Killings
Ball analyzed the data reporters had collected from a variety of sources â including on-the-ground interviews, police records, and human rights groups â and used a statistical technique called multiple systems estimation to roughly calculate the number of unreported deaths in three areas of the capital city Manila.
The team discovered that the number of drug-related killings was much higher than police had reported. The journalists, who published their findings last month in The Atlantic, documented 2,320 drug-linked killings over an 18-month period, approximately 1,400 more than the official number. Ballâs statistical analysis, which estimated the number of killings the reporters hadnât heard about, found that close to 3,000 people could have been killed â more than three times the police figure.
Ball said there are both moral and technical reasons for making sure everyone who has been killed in mass violence is counted.
âThe moral reason is because everyone who has been murdered should be remembered,â he said. âA terrible thing happened to them and we have an obligation as a society to justice and to dignity to remember them.â
The Untold Dead of Rodrigo Duterte’s Philippines Drug War
From the article: “Based on Ballâs calculations, using our data, nearly 3,000 people could have been killed in the three areas we analyzed in the first 18 months of the drug war. That is more than three times the official police count.”
Assassinations of social leaders in Colombia in 2016â2017
Patrick Ball, CĂ©sar RodrĂguez and Valentina Rozo (2018). Asesinatos de lĂderes sociales en Colombia en 2016â2017: una estimaciĂłn del universo. Dejusticia and Human Rights Data Analysis Group. August 2018. © 2018 HRDAG. Creative Commons.
The True Dangers of AI are Closer Than We Think
William Isaac is quoted.
The Devil is in the Details: Interrogating Values Embedded in the Allegheny Family Screening Tool
Anjana Samant, Noam Shemtov, Kath Xu, Sophie Beiers, Marissa Gerchick, Ana Gutierrez, Aaron Horowitz, Tobi Jegede, Tarak Shah (2023). The Devil is in the Details: Interrogating Values Embedded in the Allegheny Family Screening Tool. ACLU. Summer 2023.
UN Human Rights Office estimates more than 306,000 civilians were killed over 10 years in Syria conflict
Even if there’s a ceasefire, thousands of deaths projected in Gaza over next 6 months
In this NPR story, HRDAG’s Patrick Ball comments on first-of-its-kind projections.
Unveiling Statistical Invisibility: The Structural Racism of the War on Drugs, its Impact on Social Inequalities, and the Need for Citizen Data Empowerment in Latin America
Cecilia Olliveira, Patrick Ball, Dayana Blanco, Eduardo Ribeiro, Juliana Borges, Maria Isabel Couto, NathĂĄlia Oliveira (2024).”Unveiling Statistical Invisibility: The Structural Racism of the War on Drugs, its Impact on Social Inequalities, and the Need for Citizen Data Empowerment in Latin America.” T20 Brasil. September 2024.
Police transparency expands with new national database â except Michigan
Tarak Shah is quoted with regard to the National Police Index: âPolice often avoid accountability by moving to another agency rather than face discipline. This tool, allowing anyone to look up and track the histories of such officers, provides an invaluable service for the human rights community in our fight against impunity.â
Want to know a police officerâs job history? Thereâs a new tool
NPR Illinois has covered the new National Police Index, created by HRDAG’s Tarak Shah, Ayyub Ibrahim of Innocence Project, and Sam Stecklow of Invisible Institute.
Syria’s celebrations muted by evidence of torture in Assad’s notorious prisons
The Human Rights Data Analysis Group, an independent scientific human rights organization based in San Francisco, has counted at least 17,723 people killed in Syrian custody from 2011 to 2015 â around 300 every week â almost certainly a vast undercount, it says.
Families flock to Syriaâs prisons looking for released inmates
According to the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, at least 17,723 people were killed in government custody from the start of the uprising in March 2011 to December 2015 â an average of 300 deaths each month. There are no figures for subsequent years but there is no reason to believe the killings stopped.
The Ways AI Decides How Low-Income People Work, Live, Learn, and Survive
HRDAG is mentioned in the “child welfare (sometimes called âfamily policingâ)” section: At least 72,000 low-income children are exposed to AI-related decision-making through government child welfare agenciesâ use of AI to determine if they are likely to be neglected. As a result, these children experience heightened risk of being separated from their parents and placed in foster care.
Why top funders back this small human rights organization with a global reach
Eric Sears, a director at the MacArthur Foundation who leads the grantmakerâs Technology in the Public Interest program, worked at Human Rights First and Amnesty International before joining MacArthur, and has been following HRDAGâs work for years. … One of HRDAGâs strengths is the long relationships it maintains with partners around the globe. âHRDAG is notable in that it really develops deep relationships and partnerships and trust with organizations and actors in different parts of the world,â Sears said. âI think theyâre unique in the sense that they donât parachute into a situation and do a project and leave. They tend to stick with organizations and with issues over the long term, and continually help build cases around evidence and documentation to ensure that when the day comes, when accountability is possible, the facts and the evidence are there.â
‘Bias deep inside the code’: the problem with AI ‘ethics’ in Silicon Valley
Kristian Lum, the lead statistician at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, and an expert on algorithmic bias, said she hoped Stanfordâs stumble made the institution think more deeply about representation.
âThis type of oversight makes me worried that their stated commitment to the other important values and goals â like taking seriously creating AI to serve the âcollective needs of humanityâ â is also empty PR spin and this will be nothing more than a vanity project for those attached to it,â she wrote in an email.
A Data Double Take: Police Shootings
“In a recent article, social scientist Patrick Ball revisited his and Kristian Lumâs 2015 study, which made a compelling argument for the underreporting of lethal police shootings by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). Lum and Ballâs study may be old, but it bears revisiting amid debates over the American police system â debates that have featured plenty of data on the excessive use of police force. It is a useful reminder that many of the facts and figures we rely on require further verification.”