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Gaza: Why is it so hard to establish the death toll?
HRDAG director of research Patrick Ball is quoted in this Nature article about how body counts are a crude measure of the warâs impact and more reliable estimates will take time to compile.
The Forensic Humanitarian
International human rights work attracts activists and lawyers, diplomats and retired politicians. One of the most admired figures in the field, however, is a ponytailed statistics guru from Silicon Valley named Patrick Ball, who has spent nearly two decades fashioning a career for himself at the intersection of mathematics and murder. You could call him a forensic humanitarian.
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The Demography of Conflict-Related Mortality in Timor-Leste (1974-1999): Empirical Quantitative Measurement of Civilian Killings, Disappearances & Famine-Related Deaths
Romesh Silva and Patrick Ball. âThe Demography of Conflict-Related Mortality in Timor-Leste (1974-1999): Empirical Quantitative Measurement of Civilian Killings, Disappearances & Famine-Related Deathsâ In Statistical Methods for Human Rights, J. Asher, D. Banks and F. Scheuren, eds., Springer (New York) (2007)
Measuring Elusive Populations with Bayesian Model Averaging for Multiple Systems Estimation: A Case Study on Lethal Violations in Casanare, 1998-2007
Kristian Lum, Megan Price, Tamy Guberek, and Patrick Ball. âMeasuring Elusive Populations with Bayesian Model Averaging for Multiple Systems Estimation: A Case Study on Lethal Violations in Casanare, 1998-2007,â Statistics, Politics, and Policy. 1(1) 2010. All rights reserved.
Counting Civilian Casualties: An Introduction to Recording and Estimating Nonmilitary Deaths in Conflict
ed. by Taylor B. Seybolt, Jay D. Aronson, and Baruch Fischhoff. Oxford University Press. © 2013 Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.
The following four chapters are included:
— Todd Landman and Anita Gohdes (2013). âA Matter of Convenience: Challenges of Non-Random Data in Analyzing Human Rights Violations in Peru and Sierra Leone.â
— Jeff Klingner and Romesh Silva (2013). âCombining Found Data and Surveys to Measure Conflict Mortality.â
— Daniel Manrique-Vallier, Megan E. Price, and Anita Gohdes (2013). âMultiple-Systems Estimation Techniques for Estimating Casualties in Armed Conflict.â
— Jule KrĂŒger, Patrick Ball, Megan Price, and Amelia Hoover Green (2013). âIt Doesnât Add Up: Methodological and Policy Implications of Conflicting Casualty Data.â
The Limits of Observation for Understanding Mass Violence.
Cuentas y mediciones de la criminalidad y de la violencia
ExploraciĂłn y anĂĄlisis de los datas para comprender la realidad. Patrick Ball y Michael Reed Hurtado. 2015. Forensis 16, no. 1 (July): 529-545. © 2015 Instituto Nacional de Medicina Legal y Ciencias Forenses (RepĂșblica de Colombia).
Rapid response: Civilian deaths from weapons used in the Syrian conflict
Megan Price, Anita Gohdes, Jay D. Aronson, and Christopher McNaboe. 2015. BMJ (29 September): 351. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.h4736. © The BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. All rights reserved. Open access.
A Human Rights Statistician Finds Truth In Numbers
The tension started in the witness room. “You could feel the stress rolling off the walls in there,” Patrick Ball remembers. “I can remember realizing that this is why lawyers wear sport coats â you can’t see all the sweat on their arms and back.” He was, you could say, a little nervous to be cross-examined by Slobodan Milosevic.
Humanitarian Statistics
In late 2006, a statistical study of deaths that occurred after the invasion of Iraq ignited a storm of controversy. This Lancet study estimated that more than 650,000 additional Iraqis died during the invasion than would have at pre-invasion death rates, a vastly higher estimate than any previous. But in January, a World Health Organization study placed the number at about 150,000.
Guatemala: The Secret Files
Guatemala is still plagued by urban crime, but it is peaceful now compared to the decades of bloody civil war that convulsed the small Central American country. As he arrives in the capital, Guatemala City, FRONTLINE/World reporter Clark Boyd recalls, âWhen the fighting ended in the 1990s, many here wanted to move on, burying the secrets of the war along with hundreds of thousands of the dead and disappeared. But then, in July 2005, the past thundered back.â