The John Maddox Prize for Patrick Ball

On November 6, 2024, in London, HRDAG’s director of research Patrick Ball was awarded the  John Maddox Prize for his outstanding work in identifying, cataloging and prosecuting war crimes using rigorous statistical and mathematical modeling. In his acceptance speech Patrick called for scientists around the world to stand up together for science in order to protect the pursuit of truth and evidence-based reasoning that are the foundations of democracy.

The Nature Awards John Maddox Prize recognizes researchers who stand up and speak out for science and evidence-based policy, advancing public discussion around difficult topics, despite challenges or hostility, and successfully making a change in public discourse or policy.

The Nature Awards John Maddox Prize commented that, “Patrick Ball has been recognised for his outstanding work in identifying, cataloguing and prosecuting war crimes using rigorous statistical and mathematical modelling.  Patrick has spent thirty years working on quantitative analysis for truth commissions, non-governmental organisations, international criminal tribunals, and United Nations missions. Patrick has analysed data on human rights violations and killings from Bosnia, Timor-Leste, Guatemala, Colombia, El Salvador, Peru, Syria, Kosovo, Sierra Leone, and even the USA. Notably, he served as a witness in 2021 at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia against Slobodan Milosevic, the former President of Serbia.”

Commenting on their decision to award Patrick Ball the Maddox Prize, the judging panel declared that Patrick, “has steadfastly advocated for introducing rigour in cataloguing human rights abuses despite limited resources. He is among the pioneering figures who have brought statistical analysis to this critical field, which has been instrumental in advancing the understanding of such violations.”

Congratulations to Patrick on this well deserved award!


Our work has been used by truth commissions, international criminal tribunals, and non-governmental human rights organizations. We have worked with partners on projects on five continents.

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